Optimism in moderation - best way to go
July 11th 2011 00:23
One of the functions of a healthy, normal brain is to prevent us from perceiving the world as it actually is. The brain is constantly filtering and retouching sensory data, but one of the most audacious deceptions is the bias towards optimism.
Tali Sharot earned her PhD in neuroscience at New York University and now continues her work in London, England. In recent years her research into memory, emotion and optimism has appeared in scientific journals and popular media outlets.
Her first book, The Optimism Bias is a short compilation of the results of her research. She also provides some background in brain structure, evolution and psychology. It is entertaining and readable, and the subject matter is fascinating.
It is thin, however, and suffers from repetition of key points. Meanwhile, the medical implications and the potential for future research are left under-explored.
The Optimism Bias provides scientific confirmation of a long-standing hunch about human behaviour. Most of us irrationally assume that our future holds clear skies and smooth sailing, in spite of hard evidence to the contrary.
Sharot's research has placed those rose-coloured glasses under the microscope, and when budget permits, the MRI machine.
About 80 per cent of the population are optimists, prone to overestimate benefits and underestimate risks. And a good thing too, she suggests: without optimism, the first space shuttle might never have been launched. Without optimism, "we might all be cave dwellers still, huddled together and dreaming of light and heat."
Optimism may be irrational, but it is also beneficial. People who believe that they will succeed actually increase their chance of success.
As one example, Sharot presents the 1988 Los Angeles Lakers. After winning the NBA championship in 1987, coach Pat Riley guaranteed that they would repeat the following year. Sure enough, the team came through.
For a more scientific perspective, she reviews several landmark studies demonstrating the effect of stereotypes and labels. For example, elementary teachers were told that certain students were intellectually gifted.
A year later, these children actually out-performed the other students. However, they had been selected at random. A large body of evidence indicates that high expectations cause people to learn faster, work harder, and even live longer.
Sharot finds that optimists are not only irrationally positive, they readjust their perception of reality with transparent opportunism. After making a difficult choice, the subconscious quickly inflates the value of the selected option and devalues all the others.
Again, it is irrational but it makes sense -- once we commit to a choice, this re-evaluation shields us from excessive second-guessing and allows us to move on to the next decision.
The phenomenon also holds true for negative decisions. After selecting fleas over herpes as a hypothetical condition, one of Sharot's subjects concluded that fleas were not so bad after all.
There is one group of people who are much more likely to possess an accurate outlook for the future. Their predictions for their own life span and likelihood of developing major diseases are in line with statistics. They see the world through clear, transparent glasses. They are the clinically depressed.
After making this poignant observation, Sharot leaves it alone. She spends little time exploring the philosophical side of the optimism bias.
Our irrationally rosy outlook may lead to a longer life, a higher salary and greater happiness. However, at its core it is a distortion of reality.
Sharot's conclusion is that optimism is like red wine. One half-full glass a day is good for the heart, but guzzling a whole bottle can lead to problems.
Paul Klassen is a Winnipeg engineer and a closet optimist.
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